Star Bulk Carriers Corp. (NASDAQ:SBLK) Capital Link Company Presentation Series January 10, 2023 10:00 AM ET

CorporateParticipants

Hamish Norton - President
Nicos Rescos - Chief Operating Officer
Charis Plakantonaki - Chief Strategy Officer
Christos Begleris - Co-Chief Financial Officer
Constantinos Simantiras - Head, Market Research

ConferenceCall Participants

Nicolas Bornozis - Capital Link

Nicolas Bornozis

I am Nicolas Bornozis of Capital Link and I would like to welcome you all to Capital Links Corporate Presentation Series. We are delighted to have with us today, the management of Star Bulk Carriers, who is going to make a presentation on their development, strategy and sector outlook.

A very quick message of a disclaimer that this is not an offer to buy or sell securities. This is not for investment advice or advice of any kind. And this presentation is for purely informational purposes. Just a quick note on logistics, we will have a presentation a slide presentation, followed by Q&A. Please submit your questions using the Q&A button at the bottom of your screen. And your questions could be answered by the management after the end of this live presentation.

And with this, I'd like to thank you all for joining today. And I would like to turn over the floor to Mr. Hamish Norton, the President of Star Bulk Carriers. Hamish, the floor is yours. Thank you.

Hamish Norton

Thank you very much, Nicolas. So let me introduce the team we have online. We have Nicos Rescos, who's Chief Operating Officer. We have Simos Spyrou, who's co-Chief Financial Officer, Christos Begleris, Co-Chief Financial Officer, Charis Plakantonaki, Chief Strategy Officer; [Konstantine Anapolis] [ph], Deputy CFO; Constantinos Simantiras, who's Head of Market Research. And what you see is our forward-looking statement disclaimer. And let's go to the next slide.

This is from our Q3 company highlights I won't stick to it very closely, but there are a few items that are helpful. So Star is the largest publicly traded dry bulk shipping company. We have 128 ships, about 441 Cape and Newcastle Max, 50 Panamax and Kamsarmax, 37 Supramax and Ultramax. 120 of our 128 ships are equipped with scrubbers which have been very beneficial both for the environment and for our bottom-line. The one thing we take great pride in is the quality of our governance. It's not just governance for governance sake, but its governance because it helps our business.

Since about 2018, we've doubled the size of our fleet through small M&A transactions, which have depended upon having ship owners wanting to take our shares in payment for their fleets. And so we have a very serious board of directors, composed of institutional investors, shipping experts, ship owners who have taken shares in the company. Everybody you see from Star Bulk is an employee of Star Bulk. The people who manage our ships are employees of Star Bulk. And we don't pay commissions to affiliates.

As a result of this strong governance, management is incentivized to focus on shareholder returns. We act like shareholders. We think like shareholders in part because we are shareholders. And being shareholders, we focused very, very strongly on costs. We have the lowest average daily OpEx per vessel in the industry. We have as far as we can tell the lowest cash G&A expense in the industry. And we have excellent chartering results. At the same time, with low OpEx and low overhead per ship per day, we have among the highest Rightship ratings among our peers. Rightship being a dry bulk betting organization.

One thing I do want to focus on a little bit is our dividend policy. Basically, what our dividend policy calls for is that to the extent we have accumulated on our balance sheet, cash per vessel of 2.1 million or more we basically every quarter payout, the excess over that 2.1 million per vessel as a dividend. That leads as you might imagine, to some very large dividends. In Q3, for Q3, we declared a dividend of $1.20 per share. And our latest 12 months, adjusted EBITDA was just over a billion dollars 1.03 billion, our adjusted net income for the latest 12 months was 819 million. And in that same period, we've distributed dividends of $6.5 share, or 669 million in total.

And just for reference, our OpEx for the third quarter was $4,769 per ship per day. And our average cash G&A per vessel was $950 per ship per day. And I think if we go to the next slide, I think that's something you can study.

Slide five is interesting only insofar as it tells you what our coverage was when we reported Q3, but of course, these are Q4 coverages, which has gone to 100%. So why don't I introduce Christos Begleris, who will talk you through some of our financial information.

Christos Begleris

Thank you, Hamish.

As we are reporting, as of November 15, our total liquidity is at 417 million and total gross debt is that 1.3 6 billion. Now, we have 130.2 million of course, we've created working capital and market [indiscernible] of September 30, 2022. During the last two years, we have focused extensively on refinancings and those refinancings have had the goal to essentially reduce our cost of debt. And through essentially 800 million of refinancings, we have managed to reduce our average spread in senior debt facilities to close to 1% thereby saving around 15 million per year of interest costs.

Here we should also say that, essentially in Q2 of 2020, we entered into close to 1 billion of interest rate swap facilities at an average cost of 46 basis points. And as of today, given that our debt has an amortization schedule, the outstanding notional balance is at 755 million, again at an average rate of 46 basis points with an average remaining maturity of 1.4 years. The mark-to-market of these swaps was at 37.2 million as of October 31, 2022.

So essentially, in the last few years, we have taken down net debt from 1.67 billion as of the 30 September 2019 to 946 million as of November 22. a reduction of 43%. Cash and liquidity has increased from a low of 117 million in September 19 to 417 as of November 2022.

Moving to next slide, our COO, Nicos Rescos may want to go through the banker benefit analysis as well as potentially talk about OpEx which are the next two slides.

Nicos Rescos

Thank you, Christos. Yes, fleet of Star Bulk is fully scrubber fitted will have [indiscernible] that are not scrubber fitted. As of June 11, 2022, we have repaid in full scrub investment, including the [indiscernible] cost of $250 million. And since then, we're basically generating free cash for the benefit of the company. We are ending the year probably around the $300 mark realized, scrubber differential, high five differential, you see here as of Q3 was a 311. And we typically consume about 700,000 tons of HSFO per year, always subject to the speed that the fleet will operate in the industry.

What we also have here is a small sensitivity analysis of what is the benefit, the scrubber benefit for the company on different high five state levels. We are currently hovering around $200 per ton. We do the majority of our bunkering more than 60% in Singapore, which is representative the figures you see here on a $200 mark. And we have a full utilization of the scrubber systems on board with minimum of hire time.

We believe that due to the continued energy prices, and the difference in facts and the demand for HSFO. We believe that the high five differential will be sustainable throughout 2023. And typically through the employment strategy, we fall on the fleet, we capture more than 95% of the differential.

On high level figures on our operating costs, as of Q3, we have reported $4,769 per vessel per day, as Hamish mentioned, this is still the leading management team in terms of operational costs for that particular segment, which is dry bulk. Our net G&A for Q3 was $950 per day. And importantly, together with low costs, we still attain the highest ranking on Rightship rating. This has been consistent throughout the past three years, ranging between number one or two or three out of the 70 largest dry bulk companies and out of the five peers that we compare ourselves with.

So as I mentioned before, the majority of our fleet is scrubber fitted, we are the largest listed dry bulk player in the market. There is a significant diversification, however, we split typically between the big ships, Newcastle Max and Capes around 50% and the rest of the ships are the geared ships, the Ultramax and Supras and the gearless Panamax and Kamsarmax vessels. We have embarked on a big plan for continuing the capital expenditure of ballast water systems, according to the international regulations. And by the end of this year of 2022, we are almost done with a program we just have three left that will be installed within the next one or two years.

Operating leverage was 46,700 days in 2022. And on the bottom part of the page, you can also see how is our CapEx evolving between the end of 2022 and throughout 2023. We'll have basically include the majority of our CapEx on ballast water and energy saving devices already.

Hamish Norton

And I guess, Charis maybe you want to talk a little bit about our ESG efforts.

Charis Plakantonaki

So within the scope of our ESG strategy, we are committed to reporting transparently on our ESG performance, why overall contributing to the industry's efforts towards a transition to a sustainable net zero future. And within that scope for a fourth consecutive year, we have published our annual ESG report. This report provides a transparent and comprehensive account of our ESG strategy, objectives, performance. It is in accordance with [indiscernible] and ability standards. It outlines our commitment towards the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. And it also highlights the company's ESG issues, as those have been identified by our stakeholders both internal and external.

Within our government's principles, we also report on a wide range of ESG key performance indicators. And we present how the company manages its impact on the environment people in society.

Now highlighting some milestones from our ESG efforts in 2022. We continue to prepare timing for greenhouse gas emission reduction regulations. In that respect, we use advanced better performing systems, which report the emissions of our fleet. We also leverage technical and operational measures to improve the energy efficiency of our fleet, such as technologies related to house cleaning, product optimization but also energy saving devices.

We also participate in the research and development on green energy and technology for example, R&D on carbon capture and storage but also on different zero emission green fuels. And we also participated in environmental alliances, for example, green corridors, we tend to deploying zero emission fleet specific trade areas of the world.

And as a result of these efforts for a second year in a row, we have participated in the carbon disclosure project, and we have achieved a score of B, which indicates that our company is at the management level, which means a maturity of taking coordinated action on climate issues. This means that our rating is above the industry average, which is a C, but also is above the global average which again is the C and indicates awareness levels.

On the people front following three years of the pandemic, we are implementing an employee wellbeing program. This includes among others flexible working schemes, mental health support trainings, as well as employee engagement activities. We also continue to focus a lot on the performance management of our people, but also on a professional development of our team's members.

We also continue to support our communities. This is done through donations [indiscernible] work, including but not limited to contribution toward education, towards the environment, but also support for the refugees fleeing to Greece due to the ongoing war. And last but not least on the governance front highlights of 2022, we did set up a [indiscernible] committee at the board level. We also engaged with the climate related risk assessment, and we continue to invest in high [indiscernible] technology but also advanced cybersecurity systems. And we now pass on the floor to [indiscernible] for an update on demand and supply. Thank you.

Unidentified Company Speaker

Thank you, Charis. So on page 11, we provide an update on the supply front -- the supply fundamentals for the dry bulk sector are very positive, fleet growth during 2022 ended up at 2.8%. And this is an increase of approximately 26 million deadweight. During the year, we had a decrease of Capesize congestion in July, August which to pre-COVID levels and this had the negative effect on the market and especially Capesize rates.

Smaller sizes – congestion in smaller sizes continues to stay at inflated levels and is likely to remain above pre-COVID levels due to inefficiencies and redistribution of trades. And furthermore on the supply from supply side, steaming speed had experienced a strong decrease during 2022. And as a result of higher bunker costs and relatively lower freight rates.

Looking into 2023, 2024 fleet growth is unlikely to exceed the 2%. With the Orderbook stands at approximately 7% of the fleet. There was a minimal ordering taking place during the last two years as a result of the uncertainty on future propulsion, high costs and limited the yard capacity. And looking further down the road and on the medium to long-term, we see new regulations and an aging fleet is expected to tighten supply significantly and has the potential to create huge renewal needs post 2024.

Let's now turn on to page 12 for a brief update on the demand side. Dry bulk trading tons during 2022 was down approximately 1%. The weakness was mainly on the iron ore and grain trades due to the strong correction that began mid 2021 in Chinese steel production and the war in Ukraine have affected the export volumes. And as a result, strong contraction in grain trade.

Looking into 2023 and 24, we expect the relaxation of the strict zero COVID policy and the reopening of the Chinese economy to have a very strong positive effect for dry bulk ton miles and should benefit specially larger sizes. During 2023, at the start of the year, we expect the growth from the rest of the world to be affected from the fight against inflation, the macro uncertainty and rising interest rates. However, we do believe that this will lead into net positive ton miles and especially during the second half of 2023, as China is likely to want to take advantage to increased stocks and result into more than 2% growth year-over-year in 2023 and 2024.

And with that, we think we can pass into the Q&A session.

Question-and-Answer Session

A -Hamish Norton

Okay. So we have -- I see some questions. So we have one question on dry docking. It says with charter rates near lows now, would you push forward more of your dry docking costs? Will that cause monies for dividends to be reduced? And Nicos Rescos maybe you want to talk to that question?

Nicos Rescos

Sure. It's a good question. Because what we did -- what the question describes actually what happened in 2022, decided actually to accelerate dry bulks in Q4, which was a pretty soft water despite what we expected of the market. So for calendar 2022, we carried out 35 dry bulks. Many of them with ballast water, which is as I said before, we're basically done with that program. And for 2023, we have about half of dry dock plan about 18 dry dock. So we expect the expense to be significantly lower than 2021.

Hamish Norton

Okay. So here's another question, probably for Nicos. Do you expect CII ratings to have a commercial impact? If yes, how? And I guess the answer is yes. But what do you think?

Nicos Rescos

I'll try and be very brief here. Because the entire team has been working on CII for the past year and a half. We have completed the mapping of each and every vessel in the fleet. So we know exactly where we stand commercially, with every single one of our ships. So we've done everything that is needed to ensure that they can trade well beyond 2026, which is the first main milestone for the regulation.

To the specific question, we don't think it's going to have an impact today, because there is a pretty serious issue with the clause that has been suggested to be incorporated in charter pilots. So we think there will be some changes to the formula calculation. Because some parts of it do not make sense as to the practical use of vessels when you get penalized if your ships are actually laden, rather than being ballast. So I'm not going to dwell on what the formula is, we think is going to have an impact if you prepare. And that's what we're doing is you're going to be able to deal with it as the limits continue to increase over the next years. But we think it's practically possible even before new technology hits in carbon capture as others mentioned before. Our new fuels that can make the existing vessels trade well beyond the 2026.

Hamish Norton

Okay. And then we have a question. Longer term, how do you intend to renew your fleet orders, vessel acquisitions, corporate acquisitions, maybe I can take that. Right at this moment, we don't see that it's the right time to renew the fleet. We think new buildings are relatively expensive, and also don't offer the technology that we would want for the environment of decarbonization, that's going to be more and more important as time goes on. But soon enough, we will have to renew the fleet. And we can do that through ordering, or corporate acquisitions. And we would intend to finance that with equity and some debt. But, we think it's important that we get the right technology and the right pricing. Current, TSI stands below 9000, the lowest over the last two years. Do you think the market will recover after the Chinese New Year, Constantinos Simantiras?

ConstantinosSimantiras

Yes. Well, the indeed the Supramax market is extremely weak. It's definitely the weakest sector in the dry bulk industry right now, and especially in the Pacific, in the Atlantic market is slightly better. And the dry bulk levels that were mentioned, we do believe that there will be a recovery after the Chinese New Year and the Supramax and the gear trades. Dry bulk is extremely seasonal, and during the first half -- the first quarter, and especially during February, this is the weakest spot of demand seasonality and especially on the smaller sizes, the demand starts to go through the seasonal downturn beginning around November and bottoms out by February. This year, the Chinese New Year is at the end of January. So we do expect that demand is going to increase as we enter the Latin America grain season. We have a recovery of minor bulk trade and minor bulk consumption. So we do expect the smaller sizes to recover first, over the next two months.

Hamish Norton

Okay. And then we have a question what supply contraction is expected from CII compliance up until 2026? And I think the answer there is, 2026 is probably early, where there to be a supply contractions lead from compliance with CII but Nicos, you agree with that?

Nicos Rescos

I think Constantinos also has some data points, we feel that until 2026, we will probably see the older, less efficient vessels that were built in the early 2010, 2012. The ships that have mechanical engines and variable haul forms, that whatever you do to them, whether it's fitting an energy saving device or putting [indiscernible] will not solve the issue. And the only solution is to trade at a significantly lower speed that becomes commercially unattractive. So we believe that assuming there's some balance found to the formula, and there is widespread acceptance of the clause for trading, then we're going to see a big number of these older Supras and Capes go, but Constantinos maybe you want to add a couple.

ConstantinosSimantiras

I think Nicos, I agree with your comments, it's going to be a speed cap. Some vessels are already slow steaming so this is likely to lead into whenever the market increases substantially and demands speed to go up. These vessels won't be able to speed up and will have a cap and it will affect especially Panamaxes, it will also affect the older VLOC fleet. So it will also benefit Capes indirectly. And this is likely to start in a couple of years from today.

Hamish Norton

Yes. And then we have a question, what is your view of share repurchases when the shares sell at a discount to NAV? And the answer is if we can sell ships at a price which is significantly higher than the price at which we can effectively buy back shares. We will do that. But we don't intend to use cash from operations to buy back shares because we want to defend the dividend. But you know, we are in principle happy if we can sell ships at a big price and buy shares at a lower price. That in practice is usually hard to do but we've done it and we will do it again, if the opportunity should arise. And then here's probably another one for Nicos Rescos.

How should we think about the portion of the fleet that could attain a D or an E CII rating in 2023? And I think that is probably referring to the whole dry bulk fleet?

Nicos Rescos

I have seen various studies on this particular question, primarily generated from classification societies. Well, as far as Star Bulk is concerned, we should strongly say that we have no vessels that will fall below a zero d on CII. And more importantly, we'll be able to maintain it will be on 2023. I think the rating and below for 2023 is probably relative as to how this will be implemented and supervised, meaning how each company will report its information. I think if we push this question for the 24th, and 25, I think we could see at least 15 to 20% of the dry bulk fleet being below a derating. And again, I turn the question to Konstantinos, who also follow the data very closely.

Unidentified Company Speaker

Yes. Nicos, what exactly the data was, between 15% and 20%, according to different studies, but those are based on various assumptions that are not certain yet.

Hamish Norton

And then we have a question what vessel types are of most interest for fleet expansion? And the answer is we really like our fleet mix. We like having about a third of our ships, Supras and Ultras about a third, Panamax and Kamsarmax and about a third cape and Newcastle max. So that when we expand our target, frankly, is to try to keep that same sort of vessel mix, obviously, on an acquisition-by-acquisition basis, we can't do that. But on average over a period of time, that's what we would want to do.

And then any consideration in a hostile takeover, if you can buy vessels at below NAV. And the answer to that question is, it's almost impossible to do a successful hostile takeover in the shipping industry. Because the Board of Directors of the target will always correctly say, you should give me net assets at you, and you should give it to me in cash. And it's very hard to overcome that objection. So in theory, it's a great idea, but in practice, it just almost never works.

And then I see a question for Constantinos Simantiras, what percentage of the dry bulk demand for iron ore and coal shipping is derived from China?

ConstantinosSimantiras

Okay. That's a good question. Iron ore, almost 80% of iron ore that is being exported end up in China, and China is responsible for about 24%, 25% of coal, most of their own. Approximately 80%, again, of the iron ore trade is transported on Capes, so you do understand how important the iron ore markets are for the Cape size.

Hamish Norton

Okay. And then we have a question, Will Star Bulks cargo carrying capacity decrease to comply with CII? And I think that's a Nicos Rescos question.

Nicos Rescos

Sure. The answer is no. What we're doing is we're making sure that we can trade the entire fleet well above the present operating speeds of the fleet, which means that we cannot just -- do not only comply with CII, but even if dry bulk market average speed increased, we would still comply. We are making sure that we're taking all the measures on the fleet, and we can actually achieve that.

Hamish Norton

And let's see, Konstantine Anapolis. I think you have a few questions.

Unidentified Company Speaker

Yes. I mean, one was more general, which I think we've answered overall dry bulk market prospects. But maybe more specifically, Constantinos could talk a bit on what we see on the Chinese opening and how that affects kind of short-term and second half of '23.

ConstantinosSimantiras

Yes. Well, it's clear that the Chinese have pulled off the strict zero policy. The last one month, there has been a major wave of COVID cases. And there is a lot of uncertainty on that front. So this has indeed affected demand. As we mentioned before, we do expect demand to be relatively low during the first quarter for seasonality reasons, but also as we have the Chinese New Year approaching. There has been significant stimulus announced to support the real estate market This is something that we expect to have a stronger effect as we approach the second half of 2023. It's worth noting though, that since mid-November, Chinese imports have experienced a major rebound and we are definitely at the early stages of the demand recovery.

China in mid 2021, went through a major slowdown especially on the crude steel industry. Their production was down 10%, which is an enormous amount. And during the last two years, they've mentioned that they've postponed the cap on steel emissions from 2025 to 2030 and for building materials. In our view, this is an indication that steel production has not peaked yet. And this provides a significant upside over the next years in a very strong demand case for the dry bulk industry.

Hamish Norton

And now I see another question for Constantinos Simantiras. How are average trip length changing? And I suppose that could apply either to Star Bulk or is it the fleet as a whole?

ConstantinosSimantiras

Yes, well, this 2022 was a very mixed year because there have been many inefficiencies. And one of events at the start of the year, we had the Indonesia export ban, then the war in Ukraine. However, there have been supply shortages on the export front, that had the negative effect on demand. We've seen shorter trips, especially on the iron ore front as it was, Brazil has underperformed this year. And we are now seeing a redistribution result resulting in longer trips on the coal trade as Europe have disruption on the Russian to Europe trade. And this also applies on steel products trade.

At the same time, there has been a strong expansion of exports of bauxite from Guinea with a strong positive effect. But because of the war in 2022, we had such a major loss of grain trade, which is a very, it's so one of the carbons that produces the highest ton miles. So distances during the 2022 were mixed, depending on the site but net negative. Going forward, we do expect that this will be one of the factors that will benefit the market. Because we expect that the Chinese imports are much more ton mile intensive.

Hamish Norton

Okay. So another question come in, it says the first quarter of the year is usually the lowest quarter due to Chinese New Year. But will this year be different as China reopens? Or will China not reopen in time?

ConstantinosSimantiras

Well, the reality is that first quarter of every year is not -- is the lowest quarter and especially in February, not only due to China, it also because of seasonality on the export side, I mean, Brazil exports of iron ore go down by almost 20% between December and February. Then you have disruptions in coal exports in Australia, and Indonesia affecting January, February. And we are also in between grain season, so especially this year, we've had a relatively weak U.S. grain season and the loss of the Ukrainian ton miles. So because during January, February, the North American season transitions into the South American season this is also another reason why volumes are low.

I think that going into March, April, the export seasonality will assist significantly and this is something that will lead in higher demand irrespective of how strong the Chinese reopening will be.

Hamish Norton

Okay. And then we have a question for Nicos Rescos. What is the difference in OpEx between different ship sizes?

Nicos Rescos

I mean for the Star Bulk fleet, the main differences are basically geared ships that require more expenses for maintaining cargo gear and the gearless ships. So everything else is relative to the age of the vessel, of course, and the shipyard built. So if we're going to say that, let's say the average age of Star Bulk fleet is around 9.7 years, and we have Supramax/Ultra, Kamsarmax, Capes and News. I would say that the range is between at least for Q3 2022 is between 4300, 4600 that's how I would split the three groups in general.

Hamish Norton

And so in fact, a small ship, a Supramax can cost more to run than a Cape.

Nicos Rescos

Right. Especially if it's geared, correct.

Hamish Norton

Yes. And so now I think probably this is likely to be the last question we're going to have time to answer. But for Constantinos Simantiras, this is looking at your crystal ball. We have, I guess, two questions. Can you speak about spot versus time charter rates for the various vessel types? And most importantly, how you see this evolving over the next 12 months? And together with that, what is the single biggest risk for the sector in 2023?

ConstantinosSimantiras

Okay. So from the first question on the spot versus time charter, I think that the last two years where there have been a limited chances to retire out the fleet, they are no longer on long-term time charters without having to accept a major discount, as the forward curve has always traded at the steep backwardation. rates right now are very low in spot rates have corrected substantially compared to seven months ago. However, we do believe that the FSA curve is a good representation of the trends that are coming.

We do expect a strong recovery above FSA rates during Q2 and Q3, especially on the smaller sizes. And as the year progresses, we do believe that capes will strengthen and overperformed smaller sizes and especially compared to 2022. And this will be as Brazilian ton miles come back into seasonality during the second quarter. Capes demand usually peaks around June and then again around November, December. So we should have a very volatile market with speaks with rallies and corrections which will also be related both to the demand side, but also to ballast flows, the LOC flows and various other factors that affect the market.

Single biggest risk for the 2023, I think that the most difficult factor is, always the demand side. But I think that also people do not place a lot of focus, especially on the labor side on oil prices and the effects that bunker costs have on dry bulk. So a very strong recession in the rest of the world, boosting oil prices to very low levels probably would be the biggest risk I see.

On the other hand, I think that this has a very, has a relatively low probability of taking place, mainly due to the Chinese coming back.

Hamish Norton

Yes. And I think probably it's counterintuitive for many people, but high oil prices are very good for the dry bulk business because they basically tend to put pressure on the fleet to slow down. And that is in effect, reducing the size of the fleet. So we like oil prices to be as high as possible. And I think we're out of time. So thank you very much, Nicolas, and the team at Capital Link. Thank you.

Nicolas Bornozis

Well, thank you very much for a great discussion. And in closing, I would like to remind everyone that this presentation will be available for replay. So we look forward to more people visiting and listening to this great discussion. Thank you very much, everybody.

Hamish Norton

Thank you.