AI is the hottest thing in stocks right now. Nvidia’s (NASDAQ:NVDA) historic bull run, thanks to its AI-friendly business, is proof of this. As a result, many companies are looking to dabble in AI to capitalize off the phenomenon. However, not every such company is having such uninterrupted success as the graphic chips maker. That makes some of these companies AI stocks to sell this June.When a company’s stock starts going downhill, you need time to watch how it unfolds — preferably from a distance. That’s ...

文章核心观点 - 摩根大通分析师雷金纳德·史密斯首次覆盖Shopify并给予“增持”评级和74美元目标价，认为其是大型支付服务商，有坚实竞争壁垒，近期回调为新投资者创造机会 [1] 公司优势 - 产品广度、易用性和规模是独特竞争优势，将推动行业领先增长 [1] - 研发投资远超同行，拥有无与伦比功能和能力，保持领先地位 [2] 市场机会 - 到2026财年，公司将受益于电商长期转变和增长计划，实现18%复合收入增长 [1] - 除中国、亚马逊、苹果和沃尔玛外，全球可服务电商GMV机会为1.9万亿美元，对应近600亿美元可服务收入机会，市场渗透率仅11% [2] - 每增加1%市场份额，可带来近6亿美元年化收入 [2] - 全球线下零售有600 - 900亿美元增量机会 [2] - 针对企业客户有“按价值定价”机会，现有Shopify Plus商户月费每增加100美元，可带来3000万美元年化收入和利润 [2] - 利用人工智能等提高效率，可缩小与类似规模SaaS企业利润率差距，带来3亿美元年度EBITDA机会 [3] 股价表现 - 周二最后一次检查时，Shopify股价上涨2.44%，报64.55美元 [3]

文章核心观点 - Shopify股票连续11个交易日上涨,涨幅达1.9%,报收于64.20美元 [1] - 摩根大通证券给予Shopify"增持"评级,目标价74美元,认为其产品广度、易用性和规模是行业优势 [1] - Shopify股价目前仍比年初下跌17.9% [2] - 看涨期权交易者可能正在享受Shopify最新的涨势,50日均线呈现阻力 [3] - Shopify股票的隐含波动率处于12个月低位,意味着当前期权交易者预期波动性较低 [4] 行业分析 - Shopify作为电子商务巨头,在产品广度、易用性和规模方面具有竞争优势 [1] - Shopify股价虽然连续上涨,但仍比年初下跌17.9%,存在一定回调风险 [2] - 看涨期权交易活跃,反映市场对Shopify股价上涨预期较强 [3] - Shopify股票波动率处于低位,期权交易者预期未来波动性较小 [4] 公司分析 - Shopify作为电子商务平台,在产品、易用性和规模方面具有竞争优势 [1] - Shopify股价虽然连续上涨,但仍比年初下跌17.9%,存在一定回调风险 [2] - 看涨期权交易活跃,反映市场对Shopify股价上涨预期较强 [3] - Shopify股票波动率处于低位,期权交易者预期未来波动性较小 [4]

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投资论点 - 公司1Q FY2024财报表现强劲后股价近一个月下跌20% 主要因前瞻性指引疲软 此前估值过高使股价易受影响 目前股价持平 表现逊于标普500指数20%的涨幅 [2] - 近期抛售过度 当前股价是有吸引力的切入点 公司关键增长动力良好 营销投入有望改善中期增长前景 因此将股票评级上调至买入 [2][15] 定价结构 - 2月起Shopify Plus计划将月费提高25% 现有客户在2024年4月底前签订3年合同可锁定每月2000美元费率 新客户每月需支付2300美元 同时公司提高了年度合同客户的在线可变平台费 [5] - 1Q FY2024财报电话会议显示 多数Plus商家已迁移至3年合同 这将增加整体合同期限并稳定近期计费趋势 但Q2标准计划变更的影响将超过Plus定价变更的初始收益 对季度环比收入增长构成阻力 不过公司潜在需求依然强劲 [5] - 公司将2Q FY2024收入指引从“20%-25%增长”下调至“18%-19%增长” 主要因物流业务出售带来3%-4%的增长阻力以及定价变更的短期影响 排除该因素本季度收入仍将保持20%以上增长 [7] 公司模式 - 自3Q FY2022起公司显著推动了GPV和GMV增长 同店销售和商户基础持续增强 GPV同比加速至31.7% 高于PayPal和Block过去几个季度的增速 [9] - 公司关键增长动力依然强劲 得益于Shopify Plus迁移和营销投资的高回报 [9] - 本季度运营费用预计环比低个位数至中个位数增长 主要因营销成本增加 1Q FY2024营销费用占总收入的比例从14.8%升至19.4% 为过去5个季度以来最高 [11] - 管理层强调营销支出的重要性 营销团队利用先进AI和机器学习模型精准定位受众 新商户获取增长180% 客户获取成本改善近60% 计划保持营销支出 平均回收期18个月 有望推动中长期收入增长和利润率提升 [11] 估值分析 - 财报发布后股价下跌20% 公司当前EV/Sales TTM为10倍 考虑收入增长后该倍数预计降至8.5倍 较上次覆盖时的10.1倍低16% [13] - 考虑收入增长轨迹 公司EV/Sales/g比率为0.38 比大盘软件股平均水平0.71倍低近50% 公司潜在商户增长和消费者支出有韧性 可能支持更高估值倍数 [14] - 市场共识预计今年晚些时候利率下降 将为高估值股票创造估值顺风 但一系列降息可能意味着经济严重恶化 会对公司增长前景产生负面影响 [14]

文章核心观点 - 电商巨头亚马逊和Shopify均为出色企业且目标市场均为电商消费，但考虑到“大数定律”，Shopify在电商领域有更大的上行潜力 [1][3][5] 亚马逊情况 - 亚马逊是全球最大的在线零售商之一，市值近2万亿美元，去年年销售额达5750亿美元 [2] - 20世纪90年代末，亚马逊总估值不足10亿美元，在互联网泡沫破裂时几近破产 [2] - 若在亚马逊上市之初投资1000美元并持有，如今价值约100万美元，早期投资对回报影响大 [2] - 2016年初亚马逊市值约3000亿美元，此后四年增长两倍至约9000亿美元，再四年仅增长70%，“大数定律”使其难维持高增长率 [3] Shopify情况 - Shopify构建了电商平台，让商家通过个性化网站销售商品，提供设计、库存、广告等解决方案 [4] - Shopify的潜在市场是除亚马逊、eBay等集中式平台外的所有电商领域，全球电商支出今年预计超6万亿美元 [4] - Shopify在美国市场占有率达28%，份额与接下来两大竞争对手之和相近 [4] - 近期股价回调后，Shopify市值仅790亿美元，不到亚马逊的5%，未来两公司规模差距有望缩小 [5] - Shopify市值增至3160亿美元相对容易，而亚马逊市值增至7.6万亿美元难度更大 [5]

The e-commerce giant's stock price won't necessarily track its business fundamentals in the short term.Shopify's (SHOP 0.34%) stock performance has been a mixed bag since the company went public in 2015. Those who bought in at the start and have held on since then are sitting on a 2,220% gain. But the stock has also taken some steep drops along the way. Over the past 30 days, for instance, shares have lost one-fifth of their value.What lies ahead for Shopify, operator of one of the world's largest e-commerc ...

Shopify has acquired Threads.com, the Seqiuoa-backed Slack alternative, Threads said on its website. The companies didn’t disclose the terms of the deal but said that the Threads.com team will join Shopify.Threads added that after the launch of Meta’s social network with the same name last year, the startup had “the opportunity to sell our domains.” It is not clear if the startup sold the domain name to Meta, Shopify, or anyone else, but the note does indicate that it would have had to rebrand from Threads ...

The Good Brigade/DigitalVision via Getty Images Investment Thesis Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) shares experienced a steep decline after the company released its first quarter earnings for 2024. While revenues of $1.86 billion surpassed analyst expectations, the company reported a net loss compared to a profit in the same period last year. However, this loss stemmed from a charge associated with the sale of Shopify's logistics business. The decline year-over-year was primarily due to the sale of the logistics busines ...

John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Parkev Tatevosian, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon and Shopify. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Parkev Tatevosian is an affiliate of The Motley Fool and may be compensated for promoting its services. If you choose to subscribe through his link, he will earn some extra money that supports his channel. His ...