Rexford Industrial Realty, Inc. (REXR) Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call April 17, 2025 01:00 PM ET

Company Participants

Laura Clark - Chief Operating Officer
Mike Fitzmaurice - Chief Financial Officer
Michael Frankel - Co-CEO
Howard Schwimmer - Executive
Michaela Lynch - Director, Investor Relations and Capital Markets
Operator - Conference Call Operator

Conference Call Participants

Anthony Howe - Truist Securities Analyst
Greg McInnis - Scotiabank Analyst
Vikram Malhotra - Mizuho Analyst
John Kim - BMO Capital Markets Analyst
Omotayo Okusanya - Deutsche Bank Analyst
Mike Mueller - JP Morgan Analyst
Craig Mailman - Citi Analyst
Samir Canal - Bank of America Analyst
Michael Griffin - Evercore ISI Analyst
Blaine Heck - Wells Fargo Analyst
Brendan Lynch - Barclays Analyst

Operator

Good morning and welcome to the Rexford Industrials first quarter 2025 earnings conference call. All participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's remarks, we will conduct a question and answer session.

To ask a question at this time, you will need to press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Michaela Lynch, Director, Investor Relations and Capital Markets.

Please go ahead.

Michaela Lynch

Thank you, and welcome to Rexford Industrial's first quarter 2025 earnings conference call. In addition to yesterday's earnings release, we posted a supplemental package and earnings presentation in the investor relations section on our website to support today's remarks. As a reminder, management's remarks and responses to your questions may contain forward-looking statements as defined by federal securities laws, which are based on certain assumptions and subject to risks and uncertainties outlined in our 10-K and other SEC filings.

As such, actual results may differ, and we assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements in the future. We'll also discuss non-GAAP financial measures on today's call. Our earnings presentation and supplemental package provide GAAP reconciliations, as well as an explanation of why these measures are useful to investors.

Joining me today are our Chief Operating Officer, Laura Clark, and Chief Financial Officer, Mike Fitzmaurice. Our co-CEO Michael Frankel and Howard Schwimmer will join us for the Q&A session following prepared remarks. It's my pleasure to now introduce Laura Clark.

Laura.

Laura Clark

Thank you, Michaela, and thank you all for joining us today. I'd like to begin by recognizing the Rexford team, your dedication and strong execution for a first quarter performance and position us well to navigate today's heightened macroeconomic uncertainty. Rexford delivered solid first quarter performance.

in line with expectations. We executed 2.4% million square feet of leases, achieving net effective and cash rent spreads of 24% and 15%, respectively. Embedded rent steps in our executed leases averaged 3.6%.

Notably, 400,000 square feet of new leasing activity in the quarter was from five repositioning and redevelopment projects. Overall absorption in the quarter was a positive 125,000 square feet and renewal activity remained strong. We achieved 82% tenant retention, the highest level over the past year.

Market rents across our portfolio declined 2.8% sequentially and 9.4% year over year. Despite continued softness in market rents, Rexford's portfolio outperformed the overall market, which experienced a decline of 4.7% sequentially and 12.1% year-over-year, according to CBRE. The decline in Rexford's portfolio market rents was largely concentrated in spaces above 100,000 square feet, which are experiencing some excess supply in the submarkets of Mid-Counties, North Orange County, and the Inland Empire West.

In contrast, market rents for Rexford's smaller format spaces under 50,000 square feet continue to show relative resilience, supported by limited supply comparable to our superior, highly functional product. Regarding the current leasing environment, at the start of the year, leasing activity had picked up as tenant requirements in the market were increasing. At the time of our last earnings call, we had activity on approximately 90% of our vacant spaces, representing a material pickup when compared to 2024.

Since the recent tariff announcements, we have seen some tenants defer decision-making amid increased economic uncertainty. We currently have leasing activity on approximately 80% of our vacant spaces, and while overall engagement remains healthy, it is difficult to predict the near-term impacts surrounding the tariffs and overall levels of uncertainty. As Fitz will discuss in more detail, our guidance anticipates the potential for increased lease up timing.

Turning to capital allocation. By stabilizing assets at above market yields and selling properties at low cap rates, we are driving a creative cash flow growth and long term value creation. By way of example, in the quarter, we stabilized five repositioning projects totaling 560,000 square feet at a 7.6% unlevered yield and completed two dispositions totaling $103 million at exit cap rates in the low 4% area.

Our capital allocation and recycling strategy will continue to be focused on maximizing returns and accretion. Our value-add repositioning and redevelopments are a key driver of accretive growth, with $70 million of incremental NOI expected in the near term from the 3.2% million square feet of projects under construction or in lease-up. Regarding dispositions, we currently have approximately $30 million of dispositions under contract or accepted offer subject to customary closing conditions. We have no acquisitions under contract or accepted offer.

In closing, we are facing a heightened level of uncertainty related to the introduction of new tariffs. However, our portfolio continues to be well positioned over the medium to longer term. We own a high-quality portfolio located in Enfield, Southern California, where the long-term supply, demand, and balance will continue to persist, making our portfolio even more valuable into the future.

Our tenants serve the nation's largest regional population base and one of the largest economies in the world where leasing demand is driven by consumption. This is in contrast to larger format industrial product where demand is more closely linked to global trade flows. The health and diversity of our tenant base is strong.

And we are seeing demand from a wide range of industries, including manufacturing, construction, defense and aerospace, and the warehousing and distribution of consumer staples, household goods, and food and beverage, to name a few. Our value-add focus strives to create cash flow growth. We currently have over $230 million of projected incremental NOI embedded within our portfolio, positioning us to grow shareholder value over the long term.

We appreciate your continued support and look forward to sharing more progress in the quarters ahead. Now, I'll turn the call over to Fitz.

Mike Fitzmaurice

Thanks, Laura, and thank you everyone for joining. First, I'd like to thank our team for their commitment to excellence and teamwork as we continue to focus on driving long-term value. First quarter results were in line with our expectations.

Core FFO was 62 cents per share, representing 7% growth, both sequentially and year-over-year. We recognize 4 cents of expected termination revenue that was tied to a couple of known tenant move outs. We are maintaining our full year 2025 core outlook of 2 dollars and 37 cents to 2 dollars and 41 cents per share.

So, we are closely monitoring market dynamics and we'll assess our outlook to the extent conditions may evolve. Overall, our underlying 2025 guidance assumptions remain intact. including the projected 15 million net NOI contribution from repositioning and redevelopment.

Although our projected lease up timing has increased to nine months from our prior expectations of eight months due to tariff disruption, this was positively offset by some short-term lease extensions for properties otherwise planned for future repositioning or redevelopment. Reflecting recent changes in market rents, we've revised our leasing spread assumptions. we now expect net effective and cash leasing spreads of approximately 25 and 15% respectively.

This change will not have a material impact on our guidance as only 11% of our ABR sets expire through year end with most expirations weighted towards the second half of 2025. Our low leverage investment grade balance sheet positions us to be opportunistic while navigating market uncertainties. Today, we have more than $1.6% billion of liquidity, including $608 million of cash and nearly full availability on our $1 billion unsecured line of credit.

Since last quarter, we have further bolstered our balance sheet, reducing net debt to EBITDA by over a half turn to 3.9% times, due to the settlement of $400 million of forward equity that was raised at $49 per share in March 2024. During the quarter, we proactively initiated the recast of our credit facility to extend duration, lower interest expense, increase liquidity, enhance flexibility. This includes the refinancing of our $400 million term loan, positioning us with no significant maturities until 2027.

We expect to close on our recast in May, subject to customary closing conditions. We will continue to remain opportunistic with our debt maturities, focusing on duration and further lowering our cost of debt. And with that, I'll turn the call back to the operator and open the line for questions.

Operator

Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. In the interest of time, we ask that you please limit yourself to one question.

Thank you. Our first question comes from Blaine Heck from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Your line is open.

Blaine Heck

So, as you mentioned, market rents accelerated downward during the quarter, down 2.8% from 1.5% in Q4. I guess maybe putting aside the potential impact of tariffs on leasing demand for a moment, you know, do you have any better sense of how much further you'd expect rents to decline, just based on how much excess vacancy is on the market and how aggressive some of your competitors have been on pricing. And then, you know, I guess if you were to factor in the tariffs, how much of an accelerant to rent moderation do you think a drawn-out trade disagreement could potentially present in your markets.

Laura Clark

Hey, Blaine. It's Laura. Thanks for joining us today.

You know, as you mentioned, we are seeing some nominal pressure on market rents, but we're certainly not giving away space in the market, and demand continues as represented by As I mentioned in our prepared remarks, the current level, we've got activity on about 80% of our vacant spaces. And we actually have leasing of that leasing activity. We're actually trading paper on about 2.7% million square feet today alone.

So while it's challenging to predict future rent growth in the near term, as Vince indicated, we only have about 11% of our portfolio rolling through year end. and feel really good about the positioning of current activity given the uncertainty in the market. I also think it's important to note that demand is represented by a diverse array of tenants.

That activity is made up of some of the larger drivers are the construction industries and trades, 3PLs also including technology, manufacturing, entertainment, and apparel, So that diversity, the levels of demand as well as the diversity, we're pleased with at this point in time. One more note I think that's important is our business model. Our business model has many levers of growth, embedded growth, that in a current environment, when there could be pressure and continued pressure on rents, allows us to continue to grow cash flow.

We've got about $230 million of incremental NOI embedded in the portfolio today, about $60 million of that's the marked market, about $70 million from our repositioning and redevelopments that are in process and in the pipeline, and then another $100 million from the annual embedded rent steps in our leases that's at 3.7%.

Michael Frankel

And Blaine, it's Michael. I'll just add a little bit to your question related to the impacts or potential impacts from the tariffs. And I'll start with reminding everyone about, you know, Before the tariffs, the backdrop was actually looking relatively favorable.

And we had an increase in tenant activity, and the pent-up demand that we felt might be coming back to the market felt tangible. And when the tariffs were announced, we did see a shift, as Laura mentioned earlier. And so our tenants are clearly sensitive about the prospect of what tariffs could bring.

And the impacts of the tariffs, there's a range of potential impacts. To the extent they drive a change in trade flows, You know, our tenant base is relatively insulated. Nobody's perfectly insulated.

But as you know, our tenants are disproportionately serving regional consumption. And this is the largest zone of consumption in the country. And so we believe that does mitigate the impacts associated with changing or shifting trade flows.

To the extent that tariffs drive, you know, a reduction in overall consumer demand, you know, clearly that's something that our tenants are a little more worried about. And I think that our tenant base, in terms of their behaviors, it is very sentiment driven right now in terms of their expectations about the future. Because what they told us earlier this year is they're feeling pretty good about their underlying business actually.

And to the extent there is a drop off in consumer demand, I think if we look back to prior cycles, Again, we found that our infill Southern California tenant base has proven to be relatively resilient, certainly more resilient, for example, than your big box non-infill markets where that space is more fungible. It's more of a commodity. And our tenants tend to be far more sticky through downturns because of the extreme long-term scarcity of our space. the irreplaceable nature of our space, and the fact that it's very difficult for tenants to move and find the same.

They need to be near their endpoints of distribution. They need to be near the scope of labor. They need to be within the business ecosystem and services that support their products and components.

So a lot of factors that drive the relative stability of our infill tenant base, even through cycles associated with reduced consumer demand.

Operator

Our next question comes from Samir Canal from Bank of America. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Samir Canal

Yeah. Good morning, everybody. I guess, Mike, I know you talked about the lease up. I think you talked about nine months instead of eight months.

But maybe help us understand a little bit more about the low end of guidance here. I think given the uncertainty, everybody's trying to figure out maybe how much room or cushion there is for sort of rents to fall. As we think about, you know, kind of what PLD did, they sort of stress test their guidance.

So, you know, walk us through that, please.

Mike Fitzmaurice

Thanks. Sure, Sameer. Appreciate the question.

And again, congrats on the new role. Like any quarter, we're always sensitizing our earnings to the top end and to the bottom end of the range. Obviously, this quarter took on a bit of a heightened focus for obvious reasons.

But the way we looked at it is we really sensitized our expectation to historical downturns, whether it be the pandemic, recent market rent changes in Southern California, the GFC, and the variables that we focused on were projected lease up time for our repositioning redevelopment. Also market rent decline, bad debt expense, and same property occupancy. And we tracked those down to the historic downturns, the lows of the market, and we feel really, really good about where that gets us to in the bottom of our range to $2.37%.

And to your point, embedded in our guidance is longer projected downtime of nine months, which is a full quarter beyond what historical norms are of six months. And then also bad debt. Bad debt is at 75 basis points, which is about double of what this portfolio has generated over the last six, seven years since 2018, 2019.

So we feel really, really good about the range of possibilities on the downside.

Operator

Our next question comes from John Kim from BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

John Kim

Thank you and good morning. I was wondering if you could provide some more insight on the cash leasing spreads this quarter, which went negative. And just looking at the leases that we signed this quarter, the average went with $1,650.

And comparing that versus your in-place ABR, it looks like it would suggest a negative mark-to-market. But I'm wondering if you could just provide some more color on that.

Laura Clark

Yeah, John, I'll take that question. In terms of our new leasing spreads, I think it's important to note that this quarter only included about 280,000 square feet of comparable leases. So a very small sample set.

Most of the new leasing activity we did this quarter was in our repositioning and redevelopments where you don't have comparable leasing spreads. So drilling into that negative 5% cash leasing spread for the quarter, it was primarily attributed to one lease That lease had an above market rent that was related to some specialized improvements that were in that space. And then we leased that building as is.

So it's really a unique circumstance with that lease, but again, a small sample size.

Operator

Our next question comes from Mike Mueller from JP Morgan. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Mike Mueller

Yeah, hi. I guess, can you talk about the pace of redevelopment, repositioning starts for the next 12 months or so based on what you're seeing and expecting today and maybe how it compares to the past year or two.

Mike Fitzmaurice

Sure, Mike. I'll take that question. And good morning.

So, in terms of what's coming online this year, we have about 30 million of incremental NOI relative to 2024. In the first quarter, we experienced about 9 million. of that 30.

As we look through the remaining part of the year and second through the fourth quarter, it's going to be more back half weighted, the additional 21 million or so. In terms of what's coming offline, that cadence has changed a bit from last quarter where we expected it to come offline predominantly in the first quarter, first part of the second quarter. The Today, we expect that to be more ratable throughout the year. So we had about 3 million come offline in the first quarter, and it'll be ratable to get to the 15 million coming offline for the full year in 2025.

And so when you net those two together, you get to the $15 million net NOI contribution that we expect.

Operator

Our next question comes from Omotayo Okusanya from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Omotayo Okusanya

Yes, good afternoon, guys. Could you talk a little bit about the lease terminations in one queue, like the nature of those tenants, and how you're just kind of thinking about your watch list today, if there is one potential tenant.

Mike Fitzmaurice

Sure, yeah, we did experience, as you just alluded to, and I mentioned in the call, about $9 million or so of termination revenue. That was tied to two tenants, and that was expected and in line with our expectations. Laura, do you want to talk a bit about the color.

Sure.

Laura Clark

Yeah, I think it's important to note that the majority of that termination income was tied actually to an office property that we acquired as part of a redevelopment plan. That property is zoned industrial. So the tenant that was occupying that space was an office user, not your traditional industrial user.

We were able to negotiate a favorable term fee there and now have the ability to move forward with the redevelopment plan in the future. And then in terms of bad debt. our bad debt assumptions for the year.

Mike Fitzmaurice

Yeah, our bad debt assumptions for the year. We had outsized growth in the first, or outsized performance in the first quarter, about 3.4% million, which was about 120 basis points. As we look through the remaining part of the year, it'll be between 50 and 55 basis points, which lines up with our 75 basis points expectation.

Operator

Our next question comes from Craig Mailman from Citi. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Craig Mailman

Hey, everyone. This question may be a bit ironic or hypocritical if you want to look at it, given that I've kind of asked you guys about selling assets over the last couple of years, and now you are doing it and being successful. But I'm just kind of curious about the timing of it, given you're sitting on $600 million.

Were these more reverse inquiries that users wanted to buy these buildings, or what's driving the the uptick in disposition activity when acquisitions look a little bit less likely in the near term.

Howard Schwimmer

Hi, Craig. It's Howard. Thanks for the question.

We've always looked into the portfolio and considered dispositions, but we've in the past had such tremendous upside in rent growth that It was hard to justify a great majority of sales. And today, yes, those two dispositions we completed were unsolicited offers. And what was unique about those is that there were some owner users that came to us and they paid an extraordinary premium for the two assets we sold.

Those traded for an aggregate in the range of about a 4% cap rate. which is really interesting when you consider in today's market that deals are trading in the mid fours to 5% range or higher even, depending on what the circumstances with above market rent in a portfolio. So great opportunity for us in terms of being able to recycle very creatively this capital.

Operator

Our next question comes from Greg McInnis from Scotiabank. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Greg McInnis

Hey, good morning. Just looking at the average rent escalator signed during Q1, it was down to 3.6% as compared to 4% last year. Are you starting to see tenants push back on the 4% escalators that you've been able to achieve over the last couple of years.

Laura Clark

Hey, Greg, it's Laura. Yeah, given some of the market dynamics and pressures on rents, we're certainly seeing some other components of the leases where There is pressure, but it's really concentrated by sub-market and certain size ranges. So looking into that 3.6% embedded rent steps, that was really, really focused around the spaces over 100,000 square feet, where we saw rent steps averaging about 3.4%.

Looking at our smaller format spaces, those rent steps are holding closer to 4%.

Operator

Our next question comes from Anthony Howe from Truist Securities. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Anthony Howe

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question. Howard, I think you have highlighted that inzo locations tend to be more resilient in downturns.

Can you help us better quantify that, whether through occupancy, rank growth, or velocity compared to non-inzo assets.

Howard Schwimmer

Sure. Yeah, thanks for the question. It's really more of a scarcity for space.

You know, Southern California, is a fully built out market. While we do have some construction that occurs in our tight infill markets, it's generally just to replace older dysfunctional product. So we're really not introducing any more supply.

Whereas you look at many other markets around the country that have land and you don't have any limits on growth in terms of construction, land values tend to drop quickly. in tougher times and competing product can enter the market and at lower prices than even existing products. So we don't have that dynamic in Southern California.

And as we've sort of mentioned earlier in the call, we're really a consumption driven market with upwards of 24 million people here. It's really a different dynamic than you find and through cycles, We really generally haven't had a huge drop-off in occupancy. It's really more just timing of leasing and so forth.

Operator

Our next question comes from Brendan Lynch from Barclays. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Brendan Lynch

Great. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to just dig in a little bit on your philosophy on the pace of redevelopment and repositioning.

If we're entering a period of market weakness, would you be leaning into more redevelopment now because there's a lower opportunity cost of taking assets offline.

Laura Clark

Hey, Brendan, thanks for joining us today. You know, when we think about capital allocation, I mean, taking it back to our capital allocation strategy, we're focused on driving accretion and then long-term value. So when we're considering repositions and redevelopments, we're doing just that.

On our repositionings, we're achieving high above market incremental returns, you know, somewhere in the 15% area on an incremental returns on the incremental capital that we're investing into those assets. So not only is that driving accretive cash flow growth, but we're also enhancing the value of these assets over time. So to the extent that those repositioning and redevelopment opportunities that we have in the pipeline allow us to do that, you know, we think that it's prudent for us to continue to move forward. And that's significant, you know, part of how we will continue to drive outsized cash flow per share growth.

Mike Fitzmaurice

And one item I would note there, just by way of example, what we experienced during the quarter, we didn't. as Laura noted earlier in her prepared remarks, to stabilize about five projects, 560,000 square feet. Now, that stabilized yield is about 7.6%, but on an incremental return perspective, to line up with Laura's thoughts just a moment ago, that was 20%, which is the highest risk-adjusted return today and a great way to deploy our capital.

Operator

Our next question comes from Michael Griffin from Evercore ISI. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Michael Griffin

Great, thanks. I'm wondering if you could give just a little more commentary on occupancy expectations. If I look at your same store quarter end occupancy versus the total portfolio, it's a delta of about 600 basis points versus 400 basis points on average the four quarters before.

So it seems like you're going to get toward that midpoint of the same store average occupancy guidance. But should we see that spread narrow. Should we see it widen as we get throughout the year, like If there's any numbers you can kind of put around that, that would be helpful.

Thank you.

Mike Fitzmaurice

Yeah, thanks for the question, Griff. Appreciate it. But yeah, we ended the quarter for same property occupancy at 95.7%. We should end at the same level.

So it'll dip here in the second and third quarter and then increase in the fourth quarter. As we think about our portfolio occupancy, it did take a dip of about 170 basis points since last quarter. And that was primarily related to repositioning and redevelopments that we put into the active arena, and that should end the year right around 90, 91 percent or so.

Operator

Our next question comes from Vikram Malhotra from Mizuho. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Vikram Malhotra

Morning. Thanks for the question. I guess, you know, you've alluded to sort of long-term value creation through development, but also to the private market kind of being five or sub-five.

I'm just wondering, like, as you sell assets, like, how much could you sell. And then what about using proceeds for buybacks, given kind of where the stock is relative to what you just said the private market is trading at.

Mike Fitzmaurice

Yeah. Hi, Vikram. Good morning.

This is Mike. First, as you know, we're a capital-intensive business. We have many, many competing uses of capital.

The highest risk-adjusted returns that we're achieving today, as we just noted on the previous question, is repositioning and redevelopments. Like I said, we have five projects earn a return on an incremental basis of about 20%. We have $15 million of net NOI contribution in 2025.

This really positions Rexford up for outsized growth over the medium and long term. As we think about it, it's the $600 million of cash that we have sitting on the balance sheet. We're offensive. We're in an offensive position.

We have an opportunity to be very patient. And it goes back to our core tenets of how we think about our capital allocation. And that's accreted to earnings, balance sheet, NAV, and portfolio quality.

And reinvesting inside our assets and improving the functionality is the best return that we're getting today. Now, in terms of dispositions, today we have about $30 million or so that is under contract. And beyond that, I think it's too early to give you guidance on what we could sell later in the year.

But it is attractive use of capital, as Howard pointed out earlier, where we're able to sell in the low 4% area.

Operator

Our last question today will come from Blaine Heck from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Blaine Heck

Great. Thanks for taking the follow-up. Mike, it's helpful to hear you all went through a stress test on operating results and still feel good about the low end of SFO guidance.

I'm wondering if you can talk about some of the specific assumptions in that stress test as it relates to occupancy, rent, and bad debt, and I guess how you think that scenario would likely impact same-store numbers as well.

Mike Fitzmaurice

Yeah, I can provide you with a little more insight there, and I appreciate the follow-up question, Blaine. Like I mentioned earlier, the four variables that we look at are projected lease up timing related to reposition redevelopment, market rent change, bed debt, and same property occupancy. Now, as it relates to core FFO, if you project another month of downtime or lease up time related to reposition redevelopment, that's about a penny or so.

Then market rent decline of 10% and 25 basis point increase, the 100 basis points for bad debt, that's another penny. And on the same property occupancy, if we went down to where we were more towards a GFC of about 50 basis points, that's another half penny to a penny. So it gets it to the bottom end of the range for core FFO.

Operator

And we'll take one last question from Otayo Akusanya from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Omotayo Okusanya