Frontline Ltd. (NYSE:FRO) Q4 2018 Earnings Conference Call February 28, 2019 9:00 AM ET

Company Participants

Robert Macleod - Chief Executive Officer
Inger Klemp - Chief Financial Officer

Conference Call Participants

Jon Chappell - Evercore
Randy Giveans - Jefferies
Michael Webber - Wells Fargo
Fotis Giannakoulis - Morgan Stanley
Magnus Fyhr - Seaport Global
Greg Lewis - BTIG

Operator

Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen and thank you for standing by. Welcome to today’s Q4 2018 Frontline Limited Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] I must advise you, this this conference is being recorded today dated 28 of February 2019. I’d now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Robert Macleod. Please go ahead.

Robert Macleod

Thank you, very much and apologies every one for the delayed start. Good morning and good afternoon. Thank you for dialing in to Frontline's fourth quarter earnings call. I will start by briefly going through the highlights of the quarter. Following that, Inger will run us through the financials. We’ll then look at the Q4 and Q1 Spot earnings and go through some pretty exciting market slides. We’ll also look at the risks going forward. The call will be concluded by taking your questions.

Let's get started and look at the company highlights. Net income for the quarter was $25.4 million. Adjusted for non-cash items, we made $26.4 million. The VLCC numbers were highly affected by ballast days towards the end of the quarter, deferring revenue recognition into the first quarter of 2019.

The TCE [affects] per day, per VLCC is around $8,300. Q1 bookings are at a high level. 84% of the days are booked at $41,300, which includes the third revenue recognition from the fourth quarter of 2018. I’ll get back to earnings of Suezmax’s and Aframax’s later. Our largest shareholder continues their support, the Hemen facility is extended to November 2020.

We have also increased our ownership in Feen Marine Scrubbers to 28.9%, and our planning for 2020 is on track. VLCC new building Front Defender delivered in January. This brings Frontline’s current order book down to one VLCC only. Front Discovery, which will be delivered in April.

With that, I will hand the call to Inger to take us through the financials in more detail.

Inger Klemp

Thanks, Robert and good morning and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Let's turn to Slides 4 and 5 and look at the financial highlights and the income statement. Frontline achieved total operating revenues net of voyage expenses of $122 million, and EBITDA adjusted for certain non-cash items of 78 million in the fourth quarter.

Frontline reports a net income of 25.4 million, which is equivalent to $0.15 per share, and a net income adjusted for certain non-cash items of $26.3 million, also equivalent to $0.15 per share. The non-cash items this quarter consisted of $8.9 million gain on the termination of the leases on Front Ariake and Front Falcon. We had a $0.2 million share results of an associated company, a $5.4 million unrealized loss on marketable securities, and also 4.7 million loss on derivatives.

The fourth quarter shows an improvement of 31 million against adjusted EBITDA of 47 million and an improvement of 34.8 million against adjusted net loss of 8.4 million in the third quarter of 2018. The improvement in net income in the quarter of 34.8 million is mainly explained by an increase in the result on time charter basis of $33.1 million. This is due to the increased and reported TCE rates in the fourth quarter, compared to the third quarter.

However, our net income in the fourth quarter was impacted significantly by high number of ballast days towards the end of the quarter, especially for the VLCC, which deferred revenue recognition into the first quarter of 2019. The company is required to account for voyage revenues and voyage costs and the load-to-discharge method according to the ASC 606 on the U.S. GAAP.

The total impact of this is about 15.8 million in net voyage revenues have been deferred into the first quarter. Where 13.5 million relates to the VLCCs and 2.9 million relates to the Suezmax tankers. For the LR2 tankers, 0.6 million net voyage costs have been deferred into the first quarter. I Note 2 in our Unaudited Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements for more details.

The Spot TCE estimates for the first quarter are 41,300 contracted by 84% of vessel days for VLCC; 33,300 contracted for 77% for vessel days for Suezmax tankers and 26,100 contracted for 73% of vessel days for LR2/Aframax tankers. This includes the deferred revenue recognition from the fourth quarter of 2018, which I just went through. These spot estimates are provided using the load-to-discharge method over accounting as described in more detail in Note 2 through our Unaudited Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements.

The rates quoted are for days currently contracted. The actually rates to be earned in the first quarter 2019 will therefore depend on the number of additional days that we can contract. Of course, more importantly the number of additional days that each vessel is laden. Therefore, the high number of ballast days at the end of the quarter will limit the amount of additional revenues to be booked based on accounting under ASC 606.

The load-to-discharge method of accounting results in revenues being recognized over few days, but at the higher rate for those days. Over the life of a voyage, there is no difference in the total revenues and costs to be recognized, and when expressing the TCE per day the company uses the total available days for the quarter and not just the number of days the vessel is laden.

Let’s then take a look at the balance sheet on Slide 6. The changes to the balance sheet as of December 31, from September 30 mainly relate to a decrease in vessels of 25 million due to depreciation in the quarter. A decrease in vessels on the capital leases by 46.8 million, due to termination Ariake and Falcon. An increase of the long-term asset of 7.5 million, mainly due to advances made on scrubber investments, a net decrease in depth with 25 million, and also a decrease in obligations on the capital leases with [59.96 million], due to the termination of the leases on Front Ariake and Front Falcon.

We also had an increase in equity of 26 million [representing] the net income in the fourth quarter. As of December 31, Frontline has 158 million and cash equivalent, including the undrawn amounts under our unsecured loan facilities, marketable securities, and minimum cash requirements. Our remaining newbuilding CapEx requirements amounted to 114 million, related to the two [indiscernible] and we had approximately 114.7 million in debt capacity under our newbuilding credit facilities.

We had no near-term debt maturities. The first debt maturity is in November 2020 on our senior unsecured loan facility of $275 million matured. We had drawn down 186 million under this facility as of end of December and following repayment of 15 million in January, we currently have drawn 171 million under this facility.

Let’s take a closer look at the cash break even rates and OpEx on Slide 7. We estimate average cash cost breakeven rates for 2019 of approximately $24,400 per day for the VLCCs, $19,900 per day for the Suezmax tankers, and $16,700 per day for the LR2 tankers. These rates, they are all in daily rates that our vessels must earn to cover budgeted operating cost on dry dock, estimated interest expenses, TC and bareboat hires, installments on loans, and G&A expenses.

The reason for the breakeven rates are higher than in 2018 is that we have included dry dock costs for 6 VLCCs, 4 Suezmax tankers and one LR2 tanker in 2019. In the upper right-hand graph, we show Frontline historical VLCC cash breakeven rates. Along with average VLCC spot earnings in the period from 2009 to 2019.

We can see from the graph that Frontline’s low cash break even rates offers a strong downside protection against the low rate environment and at the same time creates a great upside potential in the strengthening tanker markets. Every $1,000 per day in achieve rates in excess of our cash breakeven rates translates to approximately $19 million in incremental net income per year or $0.11 per share, which shows the high importance of maintaining those low cash breakeven rates.

The operating expenses per day in the fourth quarter of 2018 were $7,600 for the VLCCs, $7,000 for the Suezmax tankers and $7,100 for the LR2 tankers. We did not [try dry dock any vessels] in the third quarter and no vessel is scheduled to dry dock in the first quarter of 2019.

With this, I leave the word to Robert again.

Robert Macleod

Thank you, Inger. Pretty exciting with the upside on the earnings. $1,000 is over the breakeven, it’s 90 million over the year. So, hopefully we will keep some of that going forward. Let's turn to Slide 8 please, and have a quick look at the Q4 performance and our Q1 guidance.

The spot earnings for VLCC we have already covered. We’ve made 26,100 in Q1 on the Suezmaxes. The Q1 bookings are strong 77% at 33,300. Aframax has made 18,700 in Q4 and they are also off to a good start with 73% done at 26,100.

Let’s move to the next one. Very exciting slide, the spot markets recent behavior. The market pulled back as we entered Q1, due to OPEC cuts, accelerated fleet growth and seasonal factors. In recent weeks, the market has reversed course, with U.S. export volumes and VLCC rates both doubling since January and showing a contra seasonal trend.

Reports show [indiscernible] supplied all markets. Inventories are fallen and would rise in refinery margins, more oil has [indiscernible] the markets increasing demand for shipping. This has created a strong pull on long-haul U.S. crude. Exports in March look to be almost double those in January.

The result is that ships are drawn directly to Atlantic from Asia, which in turn has left the middle east ship availability tight and the market has therefore [indiscernible] significantly at an unusual time of the year. The reason spike is very exciting and we read it as a sign that the current tanker fleet is well balanced.

As lot of ship capacity will be taken out in Q2 and Q3, due to dockings with Scrubber and Ballast Water delays. 2019 could well be contra-seasonal in multiple quarters and particularly strong in the second half. Our Spot exposure is at 97%, so we are well-positioned to benefit.

Slide 10, please. OPEC cuts change trading patterns. Forecast imply that demand growth will increasingly be geographically dislocated from incremental supply. U.S. production is expected to be the main incremental supplier in the market, which should cause tonmile demand to continue to increase as surplus barrels are transported to Asia.

New investments in U.S. export capacity are underway and will contribute to this dynamic going forward. In the meantime, supply disruptions, which have been seen recently in Venezuela and Iran, will create further dislocation and volatility in the markets.

Next one please, the VLCC order book. We are currently in one of the highest delivery years for VLCCs seen in recent times and year-to-date 11 VLCCs have entered the market. There will be slippage towards the end of the year like we saw in 2018, but we still expect around six of these to deliver in 2019.

To balance that, we have what we refer to as the survey pool of near 120 vessels, out of which many are expected to be recycled or converted over the same period. There will of course also be further orders placed for 2021 delivery on wards. An interesting fact, the average age of the current VLCC fleet is at 16 year high at 9.5 years, up from 7.5 years in 2012.

Let’s go to the last slide of the summary. Oil demand is strong and new supply continues to come from the U.S., and as a major factor [indiscernible] in the Spot market whilst driving ton miles.

As we have said, we think the vessel supply side is manageable. Frontline has taken steps to position the company ahead of the implementation of the new IMO emission regulations. We believe our 2020 preparation will lead to increased cash flow generation and allow us to return incremental value to our shareholders. On the flip side, there will be a high phase of vessel deliveries this year and [indiscernible] will slow down if the market continues to be strong.

Although IMO 2020 will make older vessels even less economical to operate. Global growth could slow and trade wars could continue to disrupt. [Lost supply] from Iran and Venezuela could also be a negative pushing deal price up and demand for vessels down. New building orders have slowed, but this could of course change.

To conclude, we expect the market to remain volatile, but continue to trend higher as the seed prepares to new regulations and oil volumes return. Crude oil tanker demand will also receive significant boost as refineries increase crude import runs to meet incremental demand for compliant fuels prior to the implementation of IMO 2020. Although there are always risks related to slowing global demand, multiple positive market drivers should result in a strong year-over-year growth in earnings.

With that, I’d like to turn over to questions please.

Question-and-Answer Session

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Jon Chappell from Evercore. Please go ahead, your line is now open.

Jon Chappell

Thank you, good afternoon. I wanted to say, I really appreciate the transparency and the revenue recognition. I think that went a long way in explaining kind of the 4Q and the 1Q volatility, so thank you for providing that. The one big question I had was on the dividend, you know the Frontline of yesteryear with a fourth quarter profit and a big 1Q outlook would have paid a pretty sizeable dividend and it was kind of noteworthy that there was not only no dividend paid for the fourth quarter, but really no mention of strategy for 2019 other than saying kind of managing the balance sheet. So, I do think that’s prudent managing the balance sheet given where you’ve come from, but how do you kind of think about the dividend especially given your optimistic outlook for 2019?

Inger Klemp

I think, as you say, we definitely have a positive result in the fourth quarter, but we have to remember that we have just [indiscernible] quarters where we have had losses and at the same time when we experience losses in the second quarters, we also had to draw on this facility that we have with our main shareholders. So, we think it’s prudent now to start to download [the debts a bit], especially this more expensive debt that we have with our main shareholder and then we have with the debt related to our vessels. So, but going forward I think this is something we have to review next quarter and with the outlook, which seems quite positive for 2019, I think we will review what to do, also how we should proportion this out going forward. But we definitely would like to have a healthy balance sheet going forward, and I think it’s also in the interest of our shareholders that we actually are [indiscernible] debt situation.

Jon Chappell

Yes. I agree with that Inger. But just to be clear is there any restrictions from the Hemen facility that – to keep you from paying a dividend or limit the amount you can pay? Or should we think about you want to get Hemen fully repaid before you kind of go back to the previous policies, or it's just kind of going to be a quarter-to-quarter review?

Robert Macleod

I think it’s fair to say that the board will obviously look at this quarter-by-quarter, but I think it’s for the – the board will look at reintroducing the dividends sooner rather than later and there’s no restrictions on the facility.

Jon Chappell

Okay, thank you. My second question is just on the Scrubbers schedule for this year. You said there’s only about 1 million left to pay in 2019, but that doesn't include installation costs. So, if we think about the all-in cash outlay associated with Scrubbers, how much cash will be going out in 2019 for those 20 or I guess the 18 that kind of new builds? And I also thanks for the schedule on dry docks [indiscernible]? What's the off-hire time associated with those?

Inger Klemp

Yes, I think you’re referring to the note [indiscernible] our state in that we have [capitulated] to the Scrubbers saw [$16.8 million worth it], if that’s what you’re referring to? Yes.

Jon Chappell

Yes.

Inger Klemp

Okay. And we also say that [indiscernible] installation costs. And installation costs we have included I guess in our – out of the total cost, we have included in our cash forecast for 2019. I believe it’s close to $47 million for everything in a way.

Jon Chappell

Okay, okay. It’s helpful.

Inger Klemp

Yes.

Jon Chappell

And the off-hire time for each drydocking?

Inger Klemp

Five to 10 days I would say, for the Scrubbers installations, I mean, in addition to ordinary drydocking.

Jon Chappell

Okay, perfect. Thanks Inger. Thanks Robert.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Randy Giveans from Jefferies. Please go ahead, your line is now open.

Randy Giveans

Hi, how is it going?

Robert Macleod

Oh! Good, thanks for coming here.

Randy Giveans

Great, great. So, a few quick questions for me. So, I see you continue to kind of grow your Feen Marine ownership, is there kind of a – do you want to own 100% of that? Is there any possibility? And how much has that cost you to get to that kind of current 29% kind of ownership?

Robert Macleod

I think we will stay where we are in terms of our ownership. We – there is no desire from our side to go much after that. So, we have no desire to take over the company. We’re going to focus on running ships, but it’s a strategically given [indiscernible] 2020. We quite like the flexibility that the investment gives us.

Randy Giveans

Got it. And then the cost for that 29%?

Robert Macleod

That we haven’t [indiscernible] we’re not going to comment on the cost in this call.

Randy Giveans

Alright. And then, just looking at the time charter market, you know, I think with the surge in [indiscernible] you’re starting to see those kind of pick up a little as well. I know you mentioned kind of your current spot exposure, but at the same time, with time charter rates pretty well above your cash breakeven levels, are there thoughts of kind of securing some tonnage on time charters here in the next couple of weeks or months?

Robert Macleod

Yes, that’s a very good question. I think we’re looking at the time charter market all the time. It's finally come up to healthier levels, as you say, well above the cash breakeven. We did two Suezmax’s recently for a one-year period locking in some. At the same time, the Spot is increasing and we expect to put time charter to – time charter rates to also keep improving here as we move towards 2020.

So, there’s no immediate rush to secure more, but we are monitoring it closely, and as we did in the last strong market in 2015, we went from very low coverage up to 30% and we will certainly look at taking some coverage this time around. But there’s no sort of clear strategy as to what percentage to look for, but it is the right thing to do for a certain number of ships.

Randy Giveans

Okay, that’s fair. And I guess a last question on the Scrubbers side, all 20 of those to be installed this year? And any plans for kind of further in 2020?

Robert Macleod

The majorities this year, some are going into next year, and I just tried it, all of them are up in conjunction with a planned drydock. So, we’ve not done any such thing outside of drydocks. Yet, it’s something that we keep monitoring, and also being a part-owner of a production company will then give us flexibility to get these things on short notice.

Randy Giveans

Sure, that makes sense. Alright, that’s it for me. Thank again.

Robert Macleod

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Michael Webber from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead, your line is now open.

Michael Webber

Hi, good morning guys. How are you?

Inger Klemp

I’m fine, thank you. What about you?

Michael Webber

Good. I wanted to look back on Scrubbers for a second and FMSI. I know they got a facility on this – it’s, you know, primary driver and being able to kind of expand their capabilities in time. It’s scheduled come online in February. Haven’t been able to find any updates on and maybe I missed it, but has that happened? And if not, give a sense on how and when that will happen?

Robert Macleod

So, the new facility in [indiscernible] just across from Singapore, I visited myself there in January. So, we are currently [indiscernible] parts moving across the new facility, and we will be operational there during the month of March. So, it's happening very soon.

Michael Webber

Okay. So, [slide] the month, but sounds like it’s pretty close.

Robert Macleod

Yes. The aim was end of [indiscernible] to March. So, no big change, and for us, we put most of our drydocking’s to capital in Singapore. So, we basically have our scrubber manufacturing just across from Singapore, so it’s very easy access.

Michael Webber

Yes, okay. That’s helpful. I mean just in the context of positioning yourselves for 2020, you know, we’ve seen some competitors, and then, maybe some potential suppliers start moving in advance to secure fuel or kind of get more dynamic in terms of kind of hedging their access into, you know, maybe a bit of uncertainty around availability. [Indiscernible] wide outcomes there in terms of availability. How do you guys think about positioning Frontline for that over the next, you know, maybe next 9 to 12 months?

Robert Macleod

In terms of the spread we’ve not hedged anything. So, my personal opinion is that it’s more likely to go wider than narrow. I think there is going to be lots of high Sulphur around pushing prices down. So, I don't – I’m not concerned about the availability. Our ships obviously trade to the large ports, so we will be bunkering the main ports as well where the availability is the easiest. If you have smaller ships going to certain places in Africa or Asia, it’s going to be more difficult, but we don’t. So, we’re focusing basically on getting the scrubbers installed; we’re focusing on more operational matters, getting the bunker tanks ready well in time, so that we don’t get any nasty surprises as we reach 1st of January. So, hedging and – which in opinion is most speculative at this time and in any case, we’re leaving [indiscernible] and we’re being [indiscernible].

Michael Webber

Okay. No, that’s alright. I appreciate that. I mean then finally just on asset values in general, just given, you know, rates have in general eased off a little bit from Q4 rather, but we’ve seen asset values kind of run in the other direction. You know, when you look at the dynamics right now between, you know, day rates, your equities and asset values, decent disconnect, do you think asset values have gotten ahead of themselves? Or do you think eventually cash flows rise to the [port levels] where they are now? And I say that was in the context of – you know, obviously, you know, the [indiscernible] equities and rates are going to rise [indiscernible] asset values where they are now. If they don’t, we’ll pull back a little bit into a catalyst that you guys believe and it could present an opportunity. So, I’m just curious of how you think about that dynamics right now.

Robert Macleod

The asset value have not – go ahead of themselves. I think they are – that they got more to go I think and I think the issue is more that the liquidity remains very low. So, there’s not much being done, but there are changes out there and obviously we keep looking at various things, and I think – I don’t see the risk of asset values dropping much as very high.

Michael Webber

Okay. That’s it. I appreciate the time guys, thanks.

Robert Macleod

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Fotis Giannakoulis from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead, your line is now open.

Fotis Giannakoulis

Yes. Hi, and thank you. Robert, we have seen the rate for VLCCs to be much stronger than a lot of people expect despite the OPEC cuts. And as you mentioned, this is primarily attributed to U.S. crude exports. Can you give us a number of how much is the capacity of the port capacity for U.S. crude exports, they reached new high last week? I’m wondering if there are any bottlenecks from the shipping side such as the timing to load a vessel or the congestion is that there can be a bottleneck to this [indiscernible]?

Robert Macleod

I think we – if you look at how the exports developed from January to March, I think March will be a good tester on eventual bottlenecks. The investment is obviously huge, and the things are improving very quickly. So, it doesn’t look to be the case, but I think March will be a test and I think the U.S. will pass the test and obviously going into 2020, there’s going to be more places to low Vs and things will – capacity will increase further. So, it could well be, I don’t have a clear answer to, but I think the risk of major life is not that way it used to drop the export capabilities.

Fotis Giannakoulis

Thank you, Robert. And we have seen – with exception of January that we had a few new orders, [indiscernible] or new building activity especially seems asset prices have increased compared to where they were about a year ago. I mean you’re discussing with the shipyards given what is going on in the dry bulk market, are there any concerns about potentially ship yards adjusting the new building prices seasonally will have a less demand for dry bulk orders?

Robert Macleod

That’s a very good question Fotis and I think the answer is on my opinion is that other segments in dry bulk are still placing orders and you’ve got consolidation going on in Korea, which will make them stronger. So, if you look at the overall activity and interest for new buildings, it remains very low and to me that’s a very good sign. Looking at the market now, normally we’re in shipping and we’re so used to bad times that if we can have a choice between having the ship deliver in two months or in two years, we go for two years. But now with the outlook and sort of general outlook in the market, then people sort of agree that we are going into a stronger period. So, now you prefer to get a ship delivering earlier and they are all – some ships that will deliver within the next year and interest even there is low. So, I mean there’s fair chance that new building order will stay low and the focus will be on re-sales and obviously that’s something I’m also hoping.

Fotis Giannakoulis

Okay. thank you, Robert. One last question about IMO 2020, we’re being focusing a lot about the movements of products. I’m trying to understand if you think that there’s going to be any increase in the movements of a fuel oil so far as VLCCs, they do very rarely cargos of fuel oil. With oversupply fuel oil and the potential of Middle East absorbing more fuel oil, how much that would be the potential demand for the crude tanker sector? And especially if you have any discussions with the Middle Eastern clients, whether they are considering of switching some of the crude consumption for power generation into fuel oil? How quickly this can come and how many ships or how – what percent of the demand can absorb for VLCC market?

Robert Macleod

First of all, to take the first part, you mentioned products briefly, then the other is on the products and its obviously – it’s difficult to say, but IMO 2020 is probably going to lead to more trading, more movements and should be a positive trigger for sure. So, we’ve had – we have our 18 owned LR2s. We’ve been through a very strong period on the Aframax market, but we did keep most of the ships clean in anticipation for a stronger clean market, and until two weeks ago, we were actually outperforming on the clean side. So, that could be exciting going forward.

In terms of the fuel in the Middle East and how the switch will be, I think fuel will be – I don’t think it will – there will be more fuel produced as we need bigger crude output for the refineries here to meet these demands. So, there’s going to be a [indiscernible] of fuel. So, our generation that’s using more fuel looks pretty sad and how that’s going to affect those either it’s coal or others let's see, right. But that’s likely to happen. And other thing on the fuel, there will be a lot of extra fuel. So, I think the older ships that I mentioned earlier in the presentation, I think there’s a fair chance that some will go on to fuel storage in places like Singapore as we’ve seen in the past to find places and store less.

Fotis Giannakoulis

Thank you very much Robert.

Robert Macleod

Thank you, Fotis.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Magnus Fyhr from Seaport Global. Please go ahead, your line is now open.

Magnus Fyhr

Just one question, you mentioned operationally positioning yourself for the IMO 2020. With the market being so volatile this year, and, you know, refinery turnarounds coming up, and, you know, more ships going into drydocking, how do you commercially position the fleet near term to optimize, you know, your rates for the ships?

Robert Macleod

We’re going to have to force ourselves to take – even if the market is strong, we’re going to have to force ourselves to take the ships out of service to get them prepared because we can’t afford being late in this. So, this will happen this year during the summer, and we will stick to that plan however strong the market is and that investment, I think, will be repaid in 2020. And I don’t – we will certainly not be the only ones making this investment in Q2 and Q3 of this year. Most likely, [balance] coming in September, so a lot of just have to apply for that.

So, there is going to be a lot of little ships going out in Q2 and Q3 and that’s also why I think that Q2 and Q3, which is normally quite weak seasonally, could be upside down this year. And, yes, it’s very, very exciting. What’s happened last two, three weeks excites me, and I think we’ve got the volatility, but we’ve got some spikes we don't normally see during the year coming up because of this.

Magnus Fyhr

Yes, and one wild card we haven’t talked about is the uranium storage, any color there on, you know, it’s too early to tell with the sanctions coming into effect again?

Robert Macleod

I don’t have the accurate dates on that, Magnus. All I can say is that I’d be surprised if you don't see the same thing happening as was the case last time as that gradually they all go on storage because they don’t have the land-based storage available.

Magnus Fyhr

Okay. And then, just one last question if I may on the – you know, on the LR2s. I mean they’ve been very strong seasonally. Any end thoughts there on locking up ships or you’re going to continue to play them Spot?

Robert Macleod

That is a segment we are looking at doing a few charters on, and we did the same in 2015 and that was basically what saved us when the markets went down. So, we’ve got low cash breakeven there between [15 and 16]. So, we’ve got a potential head to lock in some decent return. So, we will do that, probably not that many units, but some will.

Magnus Fyhr

And where do you peg that market right now for one or two-year charter?

Robert Macleod

It’s in the range of [22.5 to 25] for one, two, three-year charters.

Magnus Fyhr

Okay. Very good, Robert. Thank you.

Robert Macleod

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And your final question comes from the line Greg Lewis from BTIG. Please go ahead, your line is now open.

Greg Lewis

Yes, thank you and good afternoon. Robert, just, you know, you kind of talked a little bit about your outlook for asset prices. Just as we think about that in Frontline, you know, what's sort of your view right now on potential acquisitions of on-the-water tonnage? Is that something the company is looking at or is there availability?

Robert Macleod

Yes, we are looking at it. There are a few for sale, but you’ll be surprised [indiscernible] it actually has. But there are some opportunities out there, and, you know, as I keep saying on these calls, we keep looking and you will see us do stuff.

Greg Lewis

Okay, great. And then, just one more from me. Clearly, you know, you guys have your Scrubber investment. I imagine you are following this – you know, the overall tanker fleet that is taking Scrubbers closely. Have you done any work around, you know, how much utilization impact we could see in the market from Scrubber – from vessels being out of the market to have Scrubbers installed in 2019 and 2020?

Robert Macleod

I think it’s a great question. And yes, we’ve done some studies on it and we’ve seen our own and we’ve seen external, we have our guesses, but we don’t put a figure on it. What we do think is that Q2 and Q3 of 2019 will see a lot of supply being taken out and you could have the market that is very, very seasonal of normal. So, exciting, but I don’t have a – I haven’t put a figure on it.

Greg Lewis

Perfect. Thank you very much for the time.

Robert Macleod

Thank you, Greg.

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. Please continue.

Robert Macleod

Okay. Thank you very much. I would like to thank everyone at Frontline for their great efforts and thank everyone for calling in to this [presentation]. All the best.

Operator

That does conclude our conference for today. Thanks for participating. You may now disconnect.